Harris County Polling Signals Tight Races Ahead

By Joseph Trimmer | Texas Scorecard | July 29, 2025

A majority of Harris County residents believe the community is heading in the wrong direction, as a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll reveals deep concerns and partisan divides shaping pivotal local and congressional races.

According to the poll of 2,300 registered voters, 57 percent said Harris County is on the wrong track—an outlook especially pronounced among Republican voters and certain demographic subgroups, reflecting splits over county spending, public safety, and the quality of local governance.

Top concerns include crime (45 percent), poor street conditions (39 percent), and flooding (37 percent), with residents citing infrastructure and public safety as core issues.

At the neighborhood level, residents named “streets in bad condition” (45 percent), sidewalk problems (40 percent), and break-ins (37 percent) as the biggest detractors from quality of life.

Budget pressures loom over county leadership, with a $270 million shortfall.

While 38 percent of voters favor cutting programs and services, 30 percent would opt for raising taxes and fees—highlighting sharp differences over potential solutions.

At the federal level, Texas’ 18th Congressional District is set for a special election on November 4 to replace U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner, who passed away in March just two months after taking office.

Gov. Greg Abbott’s decision to schedule the election for November drew fierce criticism from Democrats, including U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Texas House Democrat Caucus leader State Rep. Gene Wu of Houston, who objected to the district being left without representation for nearly a year.

Abbott defended the timing, citing local election administration issues in Harris County.

A Hobby School poll of 400 likely voters in TX-18 shows high uncertainty, with 27 percent undecided on which candidate they favor.

Among decided voters, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former City Council member Amanda Edwards are tied at 19 percent each, with Carmen Maria Montiel and State Rep. Jolanda Jones at 14 percent apiece.

George Foreman IV (4 percent) and Isaiah Martin (3 percent) round out the field.

The special election will be a jungle primary, with candidates from both parties on the same ballot. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two finishers regardless of party will go to a runoff.

The district has also become the epicenter of a heated redistricting fight.

In July 2025, Abbott added congressional redistricting to a special legislative session after the U.S. Department of Justice urged Texas to redraw four majority-minority “coalition districts,” including TX-18, noting that the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeal’s 2024 ruling in Petteway v. Galveston County declared that such districts are not protected by the Voting Rights Act.

At a highly charged July 26 committee hearing at the University of Houston, most candidates—including Democrats Menefee and Jones—urged the Legislature to preserve the district’s “minority opportunity” status, a feature since 1972.

Polling also highlights a shifting landscape in the 2026 Harris County Judge race.

Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker leads in net favorability (+8 percent), thanks to strong name recognition and her tenure as mayor (2010–2016). Incumbent Lina Hidalgo holds a +4 percent net favorability, buoyed by 66 percent favorable ratings among Democrats (17 percent unfavorable) but facing sharp Republican disapproval.

Letitia Plummer, another Democrat contender, is further behind with +2 percent net favorability, indicative of her relatively low profile within her own party (20 percent Democrat favorability).

Republican Aliza Dutt trails overall, with a −3% net favorability and 81 percent of voters reporting unfamiliarity with her.

Sheriff Ed Gonzalez remains Harris County’s most popular public official, with a 55 percent approval rating and +33 percent net favorability—making him a standout amid widespread voter frustration, especially on public safety.

Joseph Trimmer

Joseph is a journalist for Texas Scorecard reporting from Houston. With a background in business, Joseph is passionate about covering issues impacting citizens.